Step 1: Understand the Forecast vs Actual
- Check forecast and previous values
- If actual > forecast for GDP, NFP, Retail → usually bullish
- If actual > forecast for Unemployment, CPI (bad inflation) → usually bearish
- Bigger the surprise, stronger the candlestick reaction
Step 2: Analyze the Initial Reaction
- First 1–5 minute candle is usually volatile
- Don't chase it — watch for direction + volume
- If first candle is strong with follow-up volume, expect trend continuation
Step 3: Use Technical Confirmation
Use candlestick patterns + key levels:
- Bullish confirmation: Big green candle breaks resistance → next candle likely bullish
- Bearish confirmation: Red engulfing near resistance or after rate hike → next candle bearish
- Combine with:
- Support/resistance
- Previous high/low
- Trendlines/Fibonacci
Summary
Trade on these top news:
- NFP
- CPI
- Interest Rate Decisions
- FOMC
- GDP
- Central Bank Speeches
Predict next candle by:
- Measuring surprise (actual vs forecast)
- Watching initial candle & volume
- Confirming with price action at key levels
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